Global Risk Report Shows an Uncertain World

The World Economic Forum released its Global Risks Report 2026 on January 14, 2026. It is the 21st edition of the annual report, which polls experts across different fields through the Global Risks Perception Survey (GRPS) to assess global threats in the short, medium, and long term.

The report highlights that uncertainty, the retreat of multilateralism, and a short-term decline in the prioritization of environmental concerns are top-of-mind for most respondents, with 50% anticipating significant global disruption within the next two years and 57% expecting it over the next 10 years.

Short/Medium-Term Concerns Reflect Current Threats

With economic confrontation and hot wars dominating the headlines, geo-economic confrontation took the top spot with 18% of respondents identifying it as the biggest current risk in 2026, with state-based armed conflict coming in second place at 14%. Meanwhile, only 8% of respondents saw extreme weather events as a significant threat, dropping from second position last year, with societal polarization and misinformation/disinformation both at 7%.

In the medium term from 2026 to 2028, respondents still saw geo-economic confrontation as the most significant threat to the global order, with misinformation/disinformation and societal polarization taking second and third place.

“After a year of heightened uncertainty over trade policy, there is now a growing recognition of the escalating use of other economic and political instruments, from sanctions and regulations to capital restrictions and weaponization of supply chains, as tools of geoeconomic strategy,” stated the authors in the report.

Extreme weather and pollution ranked 4th and 9th respectively, but environmental concerns overall have fallen significantly as other crises come to the forefront. Critical change to Earth systems ranked 24th, while biodiversity loss/ecosystem collapse fell to 26th position.

Economic concerns have become more prominent in respondents' minds, with economic downturn rising to 11th position and inflation rising to 21st. When broken down by age group, misinformation/disinformation ranked highest with the 30-39 age group, while geo-economic confrontation ranked highest with those in the 40+ age group.

Long-Term Environmental Threats Dominate

Environmental concerns dominated long-term threat perception, with extreme weather events ranking highest followed by biodiversity loss/systems collapse and critical change to Earth systems. Natural resource shortage and pollution were also ranked in the top 10 of long-term threats.

“Unlike in the two-year outlook, where these have declined in rankings, the existential nature of environmental risks means they remain as the top priorities over the next decade across stakeholders and age groups,” the authors wrote.

Technology risks like misinformation/disinformation, adverse outcomes of artificial intelligence (AI) technologies, and cyber insecurity also featured prominently, as did societal risks like inequality and polarization.

Economic threats did not rank in the top ten, but they have moved upwards, with general trends for the concentration of strategic resources, disruptions to critical infrastructure, debt, asset bubble burst, and economic downturn all moving up the ranks from the last survey.

Expert Responses Highlight Critical Risks in Years Ahead

Based on the responses, the authors highlighted six critical risks that will dominate the next decade.

Multipolarity Without Multilateralism: With global competition, local polarization, and geo-economic confrontation on the rise, multilateral institutions are unable to keep pace. The dispute settlement system of the World Trade Organization is increasingly marginalized as countries use tariffs to punish one another for social and economic actions, while middle-power countries are being drawn into spheres of influence dominated by China and the U.S. The authors proposed that “coalitions of the willing” could play a significant role in strengthening multilateral institutions and providing support for specific areas of trade and investment.

Values at War: As ideologies become more polarized, social bonds are fracturing, aided by a vast network of misinformation actors and the steady democratization of technology. Trust between citizens and governments is broken, with grievances, beliefs, and a lack of critical thinking exacerbating the deep divergence between people and communities. Educational institutions - which have traditionally been the breeding ground for critical thinking - are under attack from all sides of the political spectrum, endangering their position as a bulwark against darker ideological forces. The authors wrote that multi-stakeholder dialogue will be a critical antidote for societal polarization and for tackling misinformation networks, and that policymakers should address the identification of authentic digital content as a tool for reducing the networks that thrive on perpetuating misinformation.

Economic Reckoning: The world continues to undergo radical economic shocks, including rising inflation, slow growth in gross domestic product (GDP), and tariff-induced trade wars. Economic fears rank high in the short- and medium-term threat rankings, with total global debt in 2024 reaching $251 trillion or 235% of GDP and rising, with even the U.S. engaging in historic spending projected to raise the deficit from 5.6% of GDP in 2025 to 6.0% in 2027. Heightened risks and volatility, as well as increased CAPEX (capital expenditure) on AI that has yet to pay off for most companies, are raising anxiety levels among respondents. The report suggested that fiscal prudence and taxation adjustments to generate revenue will be important actions to mitigate the economic threats likely to take place over the next decade.

Infrastructure Endangered: As the world focuses on the digital and virtual worlds, infrastructure in the physical world is crumbling. Neglect, increased demand, and extreme weather are wreaking havoc on cities and critical infrastructure, with potential impacts on water resources, transportation networks, and supply chains. Without attention and funding, infrastructure in developed countries - much of which was built in the years immediately after World War II - will continue to deteriorate. The authors recommended public-private partnerships, climate-adaptive design, and industrial control systems that can resist cyber-physical failures to protect infrastructure from potential collapse.

Quantum Leaps: Although the potential threats from quantum computing technology rank low on the survey for now, respondents noted it as a concern. With the potential for quantum technology to render cybersecurity methods obsolete, respondents are concerned that significant technology risks and the concentration of computing power in the hands of a few are not far in the future. The authors recommended that governments and businesses begin preparing today for the next stage of frontier technologies.

AI at Large: AI has developed rapidly over the past two years, changing everything from business applications to creative industries. Respondents noted its potential for long-term global risk. They see the possibility of uneven distribution of the benefits of AI, impact on employment, and degradation of creative sectors as significant threats. The report's authors said that governments and businesses need to plan ahead to help workers adapt and strengthen the social infrastructure to ensure fair distribution of the benefits of AI.